What is a Social Network Worth? Facebook and Vote Share in the 2008 Presidential Primaries

Abstract

This study undertakes an initial analysis of the impact Facebook had on the 2008 presidential nominating contests. It estimates Facebook’s impact through multivariate regression models explaining each candidate’s popular vote share for all state nominating contests. Senators Obama, Clinton, McCain, and Representative Paul contested more than 50 of these while Governors Huckabee and Romney remained candidates long enough to provide 41 and 29 cases, respectively for analysis. The major finding is that Facebook support is an important additional indicator of candidate electoral success that is independent of traditional measures like expenditures, media coverage and organizing activities as represented by campaign events. This impact remains even after controlling for campaign and candidate specific factors such as the state’s demographic and political character, caucus vs. closed primary, or favorite son status. Facebook support had a non-significant, near zero impact on vote share only for those candidates who made little effort to cultivate a social network presence and integrate it into their campaign strategy (i.e., Romney and McCain). However, Facebook support was not necessary to secure the party’s nomination, nor could it compensate for missing demographic and strategic strengths (i.e., Paul). Overall, five of the six candidate vote share models explain between 77% and 86 % of the variance. The model for Congressman Paul’s vote share has very little explanatory power, however, and Facebook supporters is the only significant variable. These findings mirror what has been reported by the press and can be observed through visual inspection of state contest results about individual candidates ’ strengths and weaknesses. Senator Clinton’s and Senator Obama’s demographic appeal and strategic positions are juxtaposed, as are those of Governor Romney and Senator McCain.