A comparative analysis between the multilayer perceptron “neural network” and multiple regression analysis for predicting construction plant maintenance costs

Abstract

Notes that the real test of maintenance stratagem success (or failure in financial terms) can only be resolved when a comparison of machine maintenance costs can be made to some benchmark standard. Presents a comparative study between two models developed to predict the average hourly maintenance cost of tracked hydraulic excavators operating in the UK opencast mining industry. The models use the conventional statistical technique multiple regression, and artificial neural networks. Performance analysis using mean percentage error, mean absolute percentage error and percentage cost accuracy intervals was conducted. Results reveal that both models performed well, having low mean absolute percentage error values (less than 5 percent) indicating that predictor variables were reliable inputs for modelling average hourly maintenance cost. Overall, the neural network model performed slightly better as it was able to predict up to 95 percent of cost observations to within ≤ q £5. Moreover, summary statistical analysis of residual values highlighted that predicted values using the neural network model are less subject to variance than the multiple regression model.