Modelling the scaling properties of human mobility

Empirical data is used to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results, and two principles that govern human trajectories are introduced, allowing for a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility.

Abstract

While the fat tailed jump size and the waiting time distributions characterizing individual human trajectories strongly suggest the relevance of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) models of human mobility, no one seriously believes that human traces are truly random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modeling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on human mobility, captured by mobile phone traces, to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility. The model not only accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws but also allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents.