The State of the Art of Decision Analysis: A Personal Perspective
INFORMS Journal on Applied AnalyticsPublished 1 December 1992
Rex V. Brown
Citations24
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
“Personalized” decision analysis (like most quantitative analysis of decisions) has a long way to go before it realizes its potential for being widely used and found useful.
Abstract
“Personalized” decision analysis (like most quantitative analysis of decisions) has a long way to go before it realizes its potential for being widely used and found useful. Common practice of ten stumbles on “people” rather than on logic problems. Procedures need to be more closely adapted to the intended user and his or her institutional context, based on empirical and behavioral research.
Keywords
Computer ScienceDecision Sciences
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
23,088 Citations1975Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
Journal of the Operational Research SocietyDecisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs.
8,440 Citations1994Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa +1 more
Medical Entomology and ZoologyDecision analysis and behavioral research
3,065 Citations1986Detlof von Winterfeldt, Ward Edwards
Operational Research Quarterly (1970-1977)Utility Theory for Decision Making
2,502 Citations1971Roger Adelson, Peter C. Fishburn
Cambridge University Press eBooksBOUNDED RATIONALITY, AMBIGUITY, AND THE ENGINEERING OF CHOICE
1,705 Citations1988James G. March
Operations ResearchEvaluating Influence Diagrams
1,276 Citations1986Ross D. Shachter
An algorithm is developed that can evaluate any well-formed influence diagram and determine the optimal policy for its decisions and can be performed using the decision maker's perspective on the problem.
Decision making: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions.
647 Citations1988David E. Bell, Howard Raiffa +1 more
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationInteractive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model
292 Citations1980Joseph B. Kadane, James Dickey +3 more
Decision Synthesis: The Principles and Practice of Decision Analysis
235 Citations1988Stephen R. Watson, Dennis M. Buede
Risk AnalysisA Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternative Sites for the Disposal of Nuclear Waste
191 Citations1987Miley W. Merkhofer, Ralph L. Keeney
Five potential sites nominated for the Nation's first geologic repository for disposing of nuclear waste are evaluated using multiattribute utility analysis, producing insights into the relative advantages and disadvantages of the nominated sites.
Reliability Engineering & System SafetyA comparison of approaches and implementations for automating decision analysis
61 Citations1990Hollis J. Call, William A. Miller
This paper describes and compares three formal methods and software implementations for solving decision analysis problems and introduces a new approach developed by the authors that combines features of trees and influence diagrams.
PubMedDecision analysis comes of age.
61 Citations1983Ulvila Jw, Brown Rv
Three major forms of decision analysis are described and how real managers have used decision tree analysis, probabilistic forecasting, and multiattribute analysis to solve real business problems are shown.
Theory and DecisionPlural analysis: Multiple approaches to quantitative research
59 Citations1986Rex V. Brown, D. V. Lindley
Annals of Operations ResearchToward a prescriptive science and technology of decision aiding
40 Citations1989Rex V. Brown
The author argues for a major redirection of effort toward PDS by the decision science community, and suggests promising directions for its development with illustrations from his company's work.
Acta PsychologicaTowards a research agenda for prescriptive decision science: The normative tempered by the descriptive
34 Citations1992Rex V. Brown, Anna Vári
Decision Analysis: State of the Field.
23 Citations1982Ralph L. Keeney
What decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it are described, and some myths are dispelled.
Decision SciencesHERESY IN DECISION ANALYSIS: MODELING SUBSEQUENT ACTS WITHOUT ROLLBACK *
19 Citations1978Rex V. Brown
This paper argues that attempts at preposterior modeling are often unsuccessful and have critically flawed much current practice in decision analysis.
Impact and Potential of Decision Research on Decision Aiding
7 Citations1987Martin A. Tolcott, Virginia E. Holt
Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art
6 Citations1979Dennis M. Buede
Journal of Business-to-Business MarketingNew Methods for Estimating Business Markets
6 Citations1993R. V. Brown, Gary L. Lilien +1 more
Computers & Operations ResearchA computerized risk analysis aid
4 Citations1988Jacob W. Ulvila, Bryan Thompson
Conclusions are drawn about general issues in the design and implementation of computerized decision aids, especially in the organization and display of information, modes and types of user interactions, and methods for accessing analyses.