Predicting citations to journal articles: The ideal number of references

Abstract

The increasing number of references in scientific journal articles suggests editors may prefer articles with many references. Articles in first position in a journal issue are found to have more references. Researchers also may prefer articles with many references. Two hypotheses are proposed to explain this preference: 1) If references represent the adequacy of review of relevant literature (an explanation "internal" to science), then the number of references per page will affect citations. 2) If references directly influence readers' judgment of quality (an explanation "external" to science), then the total number of references will affect citations. Regression analysis of articles in sociology supports hypothesis two. References may affect citations to an article; references per page do not. The ideal number of references in a sociology article is estimated at sixty-six.