A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context

Abstract

A large literature has demonstrated that such factors as growth, inflation, and unemployment affect the popularity of incumbents within many democratic countries. However, cross-national aggregate analyses of economic show only weak and inconsistent effects. We argue for the systematic incorporation of political factors that shape the electoral consequences of performance. Multivariate analyses of 102 elections in 19 industrialized democracies are used to estimate the cross-national impact of and political factors. The analyses show that considerations of the ideological image of the government, its electoral base, and the clarity of its political responsibility are essential to understanding the effects of conditions on voting for or against incumbents.