Hawkes process as a model of social interactions: a view on video dynamics

The authors' simulated time series for the Hawkes process indeed fall into the different categories predicted by Crane and Sornette, however, theHawkes process gives a much narrower spread of decay exponents than the YouTube data, suggesting limits to the universality of the Hawke-based analysis.

Abstract

We study by computer simulation the "Hawkes process" that was proposed in a recent paper by Crane and Sornette (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 15649 (2008)) as a plausible model for the dynamics of YouTube video viewing numbers. We test the claims made there that robust identification is possible for classes of dynamic response following activity bursts. Our simulated timeseries for the Hawkes process indeed fall into the different categories predicted by Crane and Sornette. However the Hawkes process gives a much narrower spread of decay exponents than the YouTube data, suggesting limits to the universality of the Hawkes-based analysis.