Forecasting automobile-fleet fuel efficiency
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Abstract
The modeling procedure presented in this article was developed as part of a computer simulation model used to project system performance and statewide highway financing. Projection of automobile fleet fuel efficiency was necessary in order to estimate future highway fuel consumption, revenues derived from fuel taxes and other related factors affecting highway transportation system performance. This automobile fleet fuel efficiency model considers the impacts of prevailing economic conditions, governmental policy decisions regarding new vehicle fuel efficiency standards, and auto usage characteristics, all of which are vital to the accurate projection of automobile fleet fuel efficiency. The basic approach is to: (1) determine the number of automobiles in use by model year; (2) estimate automobile fuel efficiencies by model year; and (3) establish relative automobile usage by model year. Once these items are estimated, average automobile fleet fuel efficiency can be determined.