Anticipating Chinese tourists arrivals in Australia: A time series analysis

Abstract

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991–2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.