Forecasting the Demand for New Convenience Products
Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systemsPublished 1 January 1976
William F. Massy
Citations39
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Abstract
The author’s stochastic evolutionary adoption model (STEAM) is described. Methods for estimating its parameters from panel data covering the first part of the introductory period are outlined. A method by which the future purchase history of each panel household can be simulated and the results projected into a total market forecast is reported. Results obtained by applying the model and simulation procedure to live data for a new product are shown, and compared with the product’s actual sales during the years after its introduction.
Keywords
Decision Sciences
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Journal of Marketing ResearchComments on Ehrenberg's Appraisal of Brand-Switching Models
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The authors disagree with some of Ehrenberg's arguments even though the authors agree with his basic conclusion that simple aggregative Markov models are inadequate and should be discarded.