The Consensus Estimate for the Equity Premium by Academic Financial Economists in December 2007
SSRN Electronic JournalPublished 1 January 2008Open access
Ivo Welch
Citations68
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Abstract
A sample of about 400 finance professors estimates the 1-year equity premium and the 30-year geometric equity premium to be about 5%, as of year-end 2007. The sample interquartile range is 4% to 6%. The typical range recommended in their classes is a little higher (from 4% to 7%, with a mean of 6%). Since 2001, participants have become more bearish (by about 0.5%).
Keywords
Economics, Econometrics and FinanceBusiness, Management and Accounting
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19 Citations2007Ivo Welch