Delphic study examines developments in medicine
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TL;DR
This experiment with the Delphi forecasting technique correlates the opinions of experts about likely developments in the field of medicine with the results of an extramural Delphi survey.
Abstract
This experiment with the Delphi forecasting technique correlates the opinions of experts about likely developments in the field of medicine. The study was conducted for a report by Smith Kline & French Laboratories in the USA as an aid to the planning of a pharmaceutical company. Two internal questionnaires encouraged the formulation of an extramural Delphi to probe the future of five areas, biomedical research, diagnosis, medical therapy, health care and medical education. The results of the survey are displayed graphically, and a scenario for the years 1978–1983 has been constructed from the consensus statements.