Reliability-based life prediction of aging concrete bridge decks

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to life prediction of concrete highway bridge decks based on Bogdanoff''s cumulative damage model. The condition of the deck is discretized into a finite set of damage states including no damage, onset of corrosion, crack initiation, major damage and failure. The damage accumulation process is modeled using a stationary unit jump Markov chain in which the probability distribution of damage after a duty cycle is assumed to depend only on the length of the duty cycle and the damage accumulated at the start of the cycle. The service life is determined from the time to reaching the absorbing state, which may successively be redefined as the onset of corrosion, cracking, spalling, etc. The proposed model is simple to use and the statistics of the lifetime and damage states at any given time are easily determined. The model yields a practical tool for the condition assessment, life prediction, and maintenance management of highway bridge decks. An example illustrating the application of the proposed approach is presented.