Bayesian inspection model with the negative binomial prior in the presence of inspection errors

The paper proposes three conditions that should be put forth as desirable properties for a prior probability distribution of the number of defects in the product and reviews various prior probability distributions to find the only one that satisfies all the desirable conditions.

Abstract

One of the basic assumptions in Bayesian inspection models is that we have some prior knowledge about the number of defects in a certain product or software system. The prior knowledge can be often described as a probability distribution (e.g., Poisson distribution). In the paper, we propose three conditions that should be put forth as desirable properties for a prior probability distribution of the number of defects in the product. We review various prior probability distributions and test if they meet those conditions. The negative binomial distribution is found to be the only one that satisfies all the desirable conditions. With the negative binomial prior, we analyze the effects of various parameters on the Bayesian estimate of the number of undetected errors still remaining in the product.