Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

Current national emissions targets can't limit global warming to 2 °C, calculate Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen and colleagues — they might even lock the world into exceeding 3 °C warming.

Abstract

Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international agreement Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of Co2 equivalents surplus allowances for use after 2012 Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO2-eq per year Global emissions in 2020 could thus be up to 20% higher than today Current pledges mean a greater than 50% chance that warming will exceed 3°C by 2100 If nations agree to halve emissions by 2050, there is still a 50% chance that warming will exceed 2°C and will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C