Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states

Using data for state population projections from a number of different time periods, there is no evidence that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate or less biased forecasts than simple, naive techniques.

Abstract

"A common perception among producers (and users) of population projections is that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate forecasts than simple and/or naive techniques. In this paper we test the validity of that perception by evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of eight commonly used projection techniques drawn from...four categories [trend extrapolation, ratio extrapolation, cohort-component, and structural]. Using data for [U.S.] state population projections from a number of different time periods, we find no evidence that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate or less biased forecasts than simple, naive techniques."