Diffusion: Long-term Patterns and Discontinuities

Abstract

The characteristic S-shaped diffusion pattern and the resulting rates of diffusion are a macroaggregate of an underlying complexity of adoption causes. Diffusion is therefore not a unary process. Instead, diffusion phenomena are probably best conceptualized as proceeding through various stages of a diffusion life cycle. In each of these stages the process is characterized by different market niches, different determinants of diffusion, and different relationships to other diffusion processes — both of a competitive and interdependent nature. Diffusion processes should therefore be analyzed based on multivariate (i.e., considering an innovation diffusion case not in isolation) and multiattribute (i.e., using a number of measures to describe diffusion trajectories and developing comprehensive vectors of driving variables) approaches.