Estimating Regional Visitor Numbers

Abstract

This article outlines a methodology for estimating visitor counts in regions characterized by: (1) multiple gateways into the region (e.g., roads, airports) from which accurate regional visitor counts cannot be obtained, and (2) multiple attractions (e.g., museums, hotels) at which site visitor counts can be obtained. As visitors may be observed at more than one attraction, and attendees at an attraction may include residents and tourists, one cannot simply add attendance numbers from the various sites to generate a total visitor count. Moreover, one cannot use visitor counts at any single site as an accurate proxy for regional tourism. Where such conditions hold, the presented methodology provides statistically consistent estimates of total regional visitor counts, based on efficient use of the information embedded in attraction-level count and survey data. The methodology also provides consistent count estimates for visitor subgroups.