A scale for the measurement of subjective probability

A type of scale is being developed, in which the subject has to choose between a number of ordered pairs at the same time, in order to avoid the time-consuming method of pair comparison.

Abstract

Taking as a starting point the method used by Preston and Baratta and others for measuring subjective probability, a type of scale is being developed, in which the subject has to choose between a number of ordered pairs at the same time. In this way, the time-consuming method of pair comparison is avoided. The scale can possibly be applied wherever subjective probabilities are to be measured, thus, for example, when a score has to be given for prognostic ability, or when the level of aspiration has to be assessed. Another application is with regard to two-choice tests, in which case, an increase in the reliability is to be expected. The utility of the scale is to be found in the possibilities it gives for modifying the motivation of the subjects. It is then demonstrated, that if the scale is used, the amount of information given by the subject is approximately a linear function of the score.