Social Contagion Process in Informal Warning Networks to Understand Evacuation Timing Behavior

A threshold model of social contagion, originally introduced in the network science literature, is proposed to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision-making process, in particular the timing of evacuation decision.

Abstract

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one's social network, referred to as informal warning network. In this article, a threshold model of social contagion, originally introduced in the network science literature, is proposed to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision-making process, in particular the timing of evacuation decision. Simulation models are developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the strength of ties on timing of evacuation decision.