Error and Bias in Comparative Judgment: On Being Both Better and Worse than We Think We are
SSRN Electronic JournalPublished 1 January 2005Open access
Deborah A. Small, Don A. Moore
Citations38
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
Abstract
Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access to this page indefinitely Copy URL Copy DOI
Keywords
Social SciencesDecision Sciences
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
23,088 Citations1975Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
Psychological BulletinIllusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health.
7,604 Citations1988Shelley E. Taylor, Jonathon D. Brown
Research suggesting that certain illusions may be adaptive for mental health and well-being is reviewed, examining evidence that a set of interrelated positive illusions—namely, unrealistically positive self-evaluations, exaggerated perceptions of control or mastery, and unrealistic optimism—can serve a wide variety of cognitive, affective, and social functions.
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyUnrealistic optimism about future life events.
4,826 Citations1980Neil D. Weinstein
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyBiased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.
4,369 Citations1979Charles G. Lord, Lee Ross +1 more
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyThe “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes
3,189 Citations1977Lee Ross, David Greene +1 more
Lawrence Erlbaum Associates eBooksApplied psychology : an international review
2,447 Citations1989正 大山, Bernhard Wilpert +1 more
American Economic ReviewOverconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach
2,238 Citations1999Colin F. Camerer, Dan Lovallo
Acta PsychologicaAre we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
1,960 Citations1981Ola Svenson
Gothic.netFlawed Self-Assessment
1,840 Citations2004David Dunning, Chip Heath +1 more
Empirical findings on the imperfect nature of self-assessment are reviewed and several interventions aimed at circumventing the consequences of such flawed assessments are discussed; these include training people to routinely make cognitive repairs correcting for biasedSelf-assessments and requiring people to justify their decisions in front of their peers.
Cambridge University Press eBooksCalibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
1,804 Citations1982Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff +1 more
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyUnskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
1,696 Citations1999Justin Kruger, David Dunning
Psychological ReviewComparison processes in social judgment: Mechanisms and consequences.
1,328 Citations2003Thomas Mussweiler
It is argued that to understand the variable consequences of comparison, one has to examine what target knowledge is activated during the comparison process, which is conceptualized in a selective accessibility model that distinguishes 2 fundamental comparison processes.
SSRN Electronic JournalCEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment
965 Citations2002Ulrike Malmendier, Geoffrey A. Tate
SSRN Electronic JournalEntrepreneurs' Perceived Chances for Success
958 Citations1988Arnold C. Cooper, William C. Dunkelberg +1 more
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyIllusory correlation in interpersonal perception: A cognitive basis of stereotypic judgments
795 Citations1976David L. Hamilton, Robert K. Gifford
Handbook of Social Comparison
775 Citations2000Jerry Suls, Ladd Wheeler
SSRN Electronic JournalWho Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction
698 Citations2003Ulrike Malmendier, Geoffrey A. Tate
Psychological BulletinBiases in Social Comparative Judgments: The Role of Nonmotivated Factors in Above-Average and Comparative-Optimism Effects.
549 Citations2004John R. Chambers, Paul D. Windschitl
A 3-stage model for understanding how people make comparative judgments is introduced, various nonmotivational factors can influence the 3 stages of the comparative judgment process are described, and several unresolved issues are discussed.
Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and CognitionOverconfidence in Interval Estimates.
510 Citations2004Jack B. Soll, Joshua Klayman
The authors show that overconfidence in interval estimates can result from variability in setting interval widths, and that subjective intervals are systematically too narrow given the accuracy of one's information-sometimes only 40% as large as necessary to be well calibrated.
Academy of Management JournalTHE EFFECTS OF FRAMING AND NEGOTIATOR OVERCONFIDENCE ON BARGAINING BEHAVIORS AND OUTCOMES.
490 Citations1985Margaret A. Neale, M. H. Bazerman
Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal BehaviorIllusory correlation in observational report
414 Citations1967Loren J. Chapman
Cambridge University Press eBooksInformation Sampling and Adaptive Cognition
403 Citations2005Klaus Fiedler, Klaus Fiedler +24 more
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyStatistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect
366 Citations1989Robyn M. Dawes
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologySkilled or unskilled, but still unaware of it: How perceptions of difficulty drive miscalibration in relative comparisons.
342 Citations2006Katherine A. Burson, Richard P. Larrick +1 more
It is proposed that a noise-plus-bias model of judgment is sufficient to explain the relation between skill level and accuracy of judgments of relative standing, and that judges at all skill levels are subject to similar degrees of error.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision ProcessesOverconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition
341 Citations2006Don A. Moore, Daylian M. Cain
Applied PsychologyCongruence of Self and Others' Leadership Ratings of Naval Officers for Understanding Successful Performance
333 Citations1991Bernard M. Bass, Francis J. Yammarino
Medical Entomology and ZoologySelf-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself
327 Citations2005David Dunning
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyWhy we are fairer than others
325 Citations1985David M. Messick, Suzanne Bloom +2 more
Social CognitionOn Being Better but not Smarter than Others: The Muhammad Ali Effect
312 Citations1989Scott T. Allison, David M. Messick +1 more
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision ProcessesThe False Consensus Effect and Overconfidence: Flaws in Judgment or Flaws in How We Study Judgment?
244 Citations1996Robyn M. Dawes, Matthew Mulford
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyFeeling "holier than thou": Are self-serving assessments produced by errors in self- or social prediction?
240 Citations2000Nicholas Epley, David Dunning
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyMyopic Social Prediction and the Solo Comparison Effect.
226 Citations2003Don A. Moore, Tai Gyu Kim
Four experiments explored the psychological processes by which people make comparative social judgments, finding that quiz difficulty did not influence the average person's probability of winning, yet participants bet more on a simple quiz than on a difficult quiz in the first 3 experiments.
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyEgocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)
217 Citations2003Justin Kruger, Jeremy Burrus
Personality and Social Psychology BulletinEgocentrism, Event Frequency, and Comparative Optimism: When what Happens Frequently is “More Likely to Happen to Me”
212 Citations2003John R. Chambers, Paul D. Windschitl +1 more
Three studies investigated the role of nonmotivated egocentric processes in comparative optimism (and pessimism) and found comparative estimates were related to the perceived frequency of events, independent of the events' perceived desirability and controllability.
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyThe Influence of Egocentrism and Focalism on People's Optimism in Competitions: When What Affects Us Equally Affects Me More.
197 Citations2003Paul D. Windschitl, Justin Kruger +1 more
Six experiments investigated people's optimism in competitions and identified egocentrism and focalism as two causes of the bias that suggests that when people judge their likelihood of winning, their assessment of their own strengths and weaknesses have greater impact than their assessments of their competitors' strengths and strengths.
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyThe role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others.
186 Citations1990Dale W. Griffin, David Dunning +1 more
People who made predictions or trait inferences without being able to assume the accuracy of their situational construals offered confidence limits no broader than those of Ss who made their responses contingent on such accuracy.
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyPerceiving one's own traits and others': The multifaceted self.
181 Citations1988Gerald N. Sande, George R. Goethals +1 more
National Bureau of Economic ResearchCEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment
178 Citations2004Ulrike Malmendier, Geoffrey A. Tate
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision ProcessesNot so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison
163 Citations2006Don A. Moore
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyThe "relative self": Informational and judgmental consequences of comparative self-evaluation.
150 Citations2000Thomas Mussweiler, Fritz Strack
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision ProcessesPositive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions
146 Citations1999Don A. Moore, Terri R. Kurtzberg +2 more
Organization ScienceWhat Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions
136 Citations2007Don A. Moore, John M. Oesch +1 more
It is suggested that excess entrepreneurial entry is more complicated than simple overconfidence, and can help explain notable patterns in entrepreneurial entry.
Personality and Social Psychology BulletinThe Mixed Blessings of Self-Knowledge in Behavioral Prediction: Enhanced Discrimination but Exacerbated Bias
135 Citations2006Nicholas Epley, David Dunning
It is demonstrated that self-knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioral prediction, depending on how accuracy is measured, and the broader implications of measuring judgmental accuracy of judgment in terms of bias versus discrimination are addressed.
Personality and Social Psychology BulletinAssessing the Accuracy of Predictions about Dating Relationships: How and Why Do Lovers’ Predictions Differ from those Made by Observers?
129 Citations1999Tara K. MacDonald, Michael G. Ross
PubMedRatings of surgical residents by self, supervisors and peers.
106 Citations1989Donald A. Risucci, Anthony J. Tortólani +1 more
Comparisons between ratings of peers and attending surgeons by residents revealed that residents view attending surgeons as having a more balanced level of competence, across areas of both ability and interpersonal skills.
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologySimultaneous assimilation and contrast effects in judgments of self and others.
89 Citations1997Monica Biernat, Melvin Manis +1 more
In 3 studies that examined the domains of attitudes and traits, evidence of both assimilative and contrastive associations between self- and other-judgements were noted, depending on the form of judgment and the relevant judgment scale anchor.
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyEgocentric empathy gaps between owners and buyers: Misperceptions of the endowment effect.
88 Citations2000Leaf Van Boven, David Dunning +1 more
National Bureau of Economic ResearchWho Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction
85 Citations2004Ulrike Malmendier, Geoffrey A. Tate
Social CognitionIllusory Correlation in the Perception of Individuals and Groups
82 Citations1987David M. Sanbonmatsu, Steven J. Sherman +1 more
Personality and Social Psychology BulletinPessimistic Bias in Comparative Evaluations: A Case of Perceived Vulnerability to the Effects of Negative Life Events
82 Citations2001Hart Blanton, Danny Axsom +2 more
Personality and Social Psychology BulletinJudgments of Self-Other Similarity
78 Citations1990Cathy McFarland, Dale T. Miller
Review of General PsychologyIllusory Correlations: A Simple Associative Algorithm Provides a Convergent Account of Seemingly Divergent Paradigms
72 Citations2000Klaus Fiedler
Industrial Relations A Journal of Economy and SocietyThe Causes of Impasses in Labor Disputes
30 Citations1992Linda Babcock, Craig A. Olson
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyThe role of egocentrism and focalism in the emotion intensity bias
25 Citations2006John R. Chambers, Jerry Suls
SSRN Electronic JournalNot so Above Average After All: When People Believe They are Worse than Average and its Implications for Theories of Bias in Social Comparison
24 Citations2005Don A. Moore
Journal of Experimental Social PsychologyIllusory correlation in the perception of performance by self or a salient other
23 Citations1987David M. Sanbonmatsu, Sharon Shavitt +2 more
SSRN Electronic JournalJudgments of Performance: The Relative, the Absolute, and the In-between
17 Citations2005Katherine A. Burson, Joshua Klayman
Journal of Experimental Psychology GeneralWhen standards are wide of the mark: Nonselective superiority and inferiority biases in comparative judgments of objects and concepts.
15 Citations2002Eilath E. Giladi, Yechiel Klar
Japanese Psychological ResearchAmbiguous comparative judgment: Fuzzy set model and data analysis
14 Citations2007Kazuhisa Takemura
This paper proposed two types of fuzzy set models for ambiguous comparative judgments, which did not always hold transitivity and comparability properties, and a fuzzy theoretical extension of the additive difference model for preference that was used to explain ambiguous preference strength.
SSRN Electronic JournalObjective Standards Matter too Much: The Use and Abuse of Absolute and Comparative Performance Feedback in Absolute and Comparative Judgments and Decisions
4 Citations2005William M. P. Klein, Don A. Moore
Deep Blue (University of Michigan)Skilled or Unskilled, But Still Unaware of it: How Perceptions of Difficulty Drive Miscalibration in Relative Comparisons
4 Citations2006Katherine A. Burson, Richard P. Larrick +1 more
Comparative LiteratureExpanding the Social Contract: Rousseau, Gender and the Problem of Judgment
3 Citations1991Julia Simon‐Ingram