Simpler scenarios

Abstract

Describes in detail the simpler approach to scenario planning which retains the ability to handle uncertainty – the traditional reason for using such scenarios. States that their greatest virtue, however, is that their use naturally – and painlessly – widens managers′ viewpoints and helps to extend their planning horizons beyond the short term. Concludes that the most important message to emerge is that scenarios can be simple, and the simpler they are – and the simpler the process used to derive them – the more effective they may be; not least because those using them are able to understand how they work.