Analyzing Domestic Tourism Demand in China-A Behavioral Model

Abstract

Abstract The demand of China's domestic tourism outpaces inbound arrivals and makes up over 90 percent of its total tourist traffic. This study examined the evolution and development of the domestic market and proposed a behavioral model that distinguished GNP and increased leisure time as two significant factors affecting the demand. A five-year forecast was projected using the model, resulting in estimates that were more conservative and realistic than presently planned by the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA). Three problems were identified as major obstacles to the continual development of the market. Implications were discussed in the context of tourism planning, research and business opportunities.