Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax
Parasites & VectorsPublished 26 May 2011Open access
Peter W. Gething, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, David L. Smith, Carlos A. Guerra, Anand P. Patil, Robert W. Snow
Citations220
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score1.04
SNIP1.34
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
A dynamic biological model that incorporated the principal mechanisms of temperature dependency in the malaria transmission cycle is defined and used with fine spatial and temporal resolution temperature data to evaluate time-series of temperature suitability for transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.
Abstract
These modelled products, made available freely in the public domain, can support the refined delineation of populations at risk; enhance endemicity mapping by offering a detailed, dynamic, and biologically driven alternative to the ubiquitous empirical incorporation of raw temperature data in geospatial models; and provide a rich spatial and temporal platform for future biological modelling studies.
Keywords
MedicineEnvironmental Science
International Journal of ClimatologyVery high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas
19,923 Citations2005Robert J. Hijmans, Susan E. Cameron +3 more
Infectious Diseases of Humans
6,036 Citations1991Roy M. Anderson, Robert M. May
NatureImpact of regional climate change on human health
3,078 Citations2005Jonathan A. Patz, Diarmid Campbell‐Lendrum +2 more
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)Model-Based Geostatistics
2,208 Citations1998Peter J. Diggle, Jonathan A. Tawn +1 more
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and HygieneInfectious diseases of humans
2,182 Citations1992Adrian Hall
Malaria JournalA new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010
1,172 Citations2011Peter W. Gething, Anand P. Patil +6 more
The generation of a new world map for the year 2010 is described to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (Pf EIR) and the basic reproductive number (PFR).
Springer series in statisticsModel-based Geostatistics
1,058 Citations2007Peter J. Diggle, Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro
Parasitology TodayA Climate-based Distribution Model of Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa
878 Citations1999M. Craig, M.H. Craig +2 more
A simple numerical approach to defining distribution of malaria transmission, based upon biological constraints of climate on parasite and vector development, provides a numerical basis for further refinement and prediction of the impact of climate change on transmission.
Statistical Methods in Medical ResearchThe estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases
874 Citations1993Klaus Dietz
The present paper gives a survey about the various estimation methods available for the basic reproduction number Ro, which may vary considerably for different infectious diseases but also for the same disease in different populations.
Parasites & VectorsThe dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis
738 Citations2010Marianne Sinka, Michael J. Bangs +13 more
The DVS of Africa, Europe and the Middle East are discussed, with the predicted geographic extent for the following DVS (or species/suspected species complex*) provided for Africa: Anopheles (Cellia) arabiensis, An.
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and HygieneA GLOBAL INDEX REPRESENTING THE STABILITY OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION
671 Citations2004Anthony E. Kiszewski, Andrew D. Mellinger +4 more
An index representing the contribution of regionally dominant vector mosquitoes to the force of transmission was derived and it was found that these biologic characteristics of diverse vector mosquitoes interact with climate to explain much of the regional variation in the intensity of transmission.
Nature CommunicationsGlobal distribution of the sickle cell gene and geographical confirmation of the malaria hypothesis
610 Citations2010Frédéric B. Piel, Anand P. Patil +6 more
This work uses a comprehensive data assembly of HbS allele frequencies to generate the first evidence-based map of the worldwide distribution of the gene in a Bayesian geostatistical framework and finds geographical support for the malaria hypothesis globally.
Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesInfluence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation
596 Citations2010Krijn P. Paaijmans, Simon Blanford +4 more
Temperature fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures, at the extremes.
Parasites & VectorsThe dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis
573 Citations2011Marianne Sinka, Michael J. Bangs +9 more
This article concludes a project aimed to establish the contemporary global distribution of the DVS of malaria by using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling method, and produces distribution maps of each DVS.
Malaria JournalStatics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes.
497 Citations2004David L. Smith, F. Ellis McKenzie
The classic formulae are used to illustrate how malaria control reduces malaria transmission and show that increased mosquito mortality has an effect even larger than was proposed by Macdonald in the 1950's.
Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesUnderstanding the link between malaria risk and climate
472 Citations2009Krijn P. Paaijmans, Andrew F. Read +1 more
This work uses a thermodynamic malaria development model to demonstrate that temperature fluctuation can substantially alter the incubation period of the parasite, and hence malaria transmission rates, and finds that it reduces the impact of increases in mean temperature.
PLoS BiologyRevisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control
471 Citations2007David L. Smith, F. Ellis McKenzie +2 more
This work estimates R 0 in a novel way for 121 African populations, and thereby increases the number of R 0 estimates for malaria by an order of magnitude, which strongly supports the long-held notion that malaria control presents variable challenges across its transmission spectrum.
Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesMalaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited
464 Citations2006Mercedes Pascual, Jorge Ahumada +3 more
This work drives a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions to find evidence for a significant warming trend at all sites in East Africa.
PLoS neglected tropical diseasesThe International Limits and Population at Risk of Plasmodium vivax Transmission in 2009
458 Citations2010Carlos A. Guerra, Rosalind E. Howes +11 more
A contemporary evidence-based map of the global spatial extent of P. vivax malaria, together with estimates of the human population at risk (PAR) of any level of transmission in 2009, is provided to support future cartographic-based burden estimations.
PLoS MedicineThe Limits and Intensity of Plasmodium falciparum Transmission: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination Worldwide
442 Citations2008Carlos A. Guerra, Priscilla W. Gikandi +5 more
The global geographic distribution of P. falciparum malaria in 2007 is defined and a preliminary description of its transmission intensity within this range is provided to provide the most contemporary summary of the population at risk of P. falciparum malaria within these limits.
PubMedMalaria in the African highlands: past, present and future.
437 Citations1998Steven W. Lindsay, Pim Martens
The results obtained using a mathematical model designed to identify these epidemic-prone regions in the African highlands and the differences expected to occur as a result of projected global climate change are presented.
Environmental Health PerspectivesPotential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.
416 Citations1995Pim Martens, Louis Niessen +3 more
Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission, most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas.
Environmental Health PerspectivesModeling the Effects of Weather and Climate Change on Malaria Transmission
411 Citations2009Paul E. Parham, Edwin Michael
The role that dynamic process-based mathematical models can play in providing strategic insights into the effects of climate change on malaria transmission is investigated and the role that large-scale climate simulations and infectious disease systems may be modeled and analyzed is illustrated.
NatureClimate change and the global malaria recession
391 Citations2010Peter W. Gething, David L. Smith +4 more
The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest and the proposed effects on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy.
PLoS MedicineEstimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007
376 Citations2010Simon I Hay, Emelda A. Okiro +5 more
Simon Hay and colleagues derive contemporary estimates of the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria (the deadliest form of malaria) using cartography-based techniques.
Global Environmental ChangeClimate change and future populations at risk of malaria
370 Citations1999Pim Martens, Sari Kovats +6 more
This assessment uses an improved version of the MIASMA malaria model, which incorporates knowledge about the current distributions and characteristics of the main mosquito species of malaria, and predicts the greatest proportional changes in potential transmission are forecast to occur in temperate zones.
Bulletin of Entomological ResearchEffect of temperature on the development of the aquatic stages of<i>Anopheles gambiae</i>sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae)
359 Citations2003M. Nabie Bayoh, Steve W. Lindsay
Non-linear models were used to describe the relationship between developmental rate and temperature, which could be used for developing process-based models of malaria transmission and demonstrated that a map where the climate is suitable for the development of aquatic stages of A.s. gambiae corresponded closely with the best map of malaria risk currently available for Africa.
Parasites & VectorsThe dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Americas: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis
327 Citations2010Marianne Sinka, Yasmín Rubio-Palis +8 more
The distribution maps and bionomics review should both be considered as a starting point in an ongoing process of describing the distributions of these DVS and documenting their contemporarybionomics (since intervention and control pressures can act to modify behavioural traits).
Malaria JournalA weather-driven model of malaria transmission.
304 Citations2004Moshe Hoshen, Andrew P. Morse
A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts and qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection.
PLoS MedicineCorrection: A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007
271 Citations2009Simon I Hay, Carlos A. Guerra +11 more
Climatic ChangeSENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING
255 Citations1997WILLEM J. M. Martens, T.H. Jetten +1 more
These findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.
Global Environmental ChangeClimate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios
255 Citations2004M. van Lieshout, Sari Kovats +2 more
Climate-induced changes in the potential distribution of malaria is projected in the poor and vulnerable regions of the world, however, climate change is not likely to affect malaria transmission in the poorest countries where the climate is already highly favourable for transmission.
International Journal of EpidemiologyA spatial statistical approach to malaria mapping
235 Citations2000Immo Kleinschmidt, Magaran Monzon Bagayoko +3 more
This work uses logistic regression modelling to determine approximate risk on a larger scale and employs geo-statistical approaches to improve prediction at a local level of malaria risk, using climatic, population and topographic variables as potential predictors.
Journal of Applied EcologyThe Analysis of Mortality and Survival Rates in Wild Populations of Mosquitoes
218 Citations1981A. N. Clements, G.D. Paterson
The re-analysis of survival data for wild populations of eleven tropical species of mosquitoes revealed that in most of these populations the adult female mortality rates were not independent of age, as had commonly been supposed, but increased with age.
AIBS BulletinMosquitoes--Their Bionomics and Relation to Disease
210 Citations1955William R. Horsfall
Tropical Medicine & International HealthExploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa: Part I. The impact of climatic factors
209 Citations2004M. Craig, Immo Kleinschmidt +3 more
In KZN, where malaria control operations are intense, climate appears to drive the interannual variation of malaria incidence, but not its overall level, and evidence that overall levels are associated with non‐climatic factors such as drug resistance and possibly HIV prevalence is provided.
Malaria JournalA simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission.
204 Citations2004Jean-Marc O Depinay, Charles Mbogo +10 more
A simulation model of African malaria vectors that allows a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics in general and also a better understanding of the dynamics in specific local geographic environments is presented.
Global Environmental ChangeClimate change and vector-borne diseases
188 Citations1995Pim Martens, T.H. Jetten +2 more
BMC Infectious DiseasesThe risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009
174 Citations2009Abdisalan M. Noor, Peter W. Gething +6 more
Parasitology TodayFrom Predicting Mosquito Habitat to Malaria Seasons Using Remotely Sensed Data: Practice, Problems and Perspectives
169 Citations1998Simon I Hay, Robert W. Snow +1 more
The development of remote sensing techniques is reviewed, from aerial photographic identification of mosquito larval habitats on the local scale through to the space-based survey of malaria risk over continental areas using increasingly sophisticated airborne and satellite-sensor technology.
PLoS MedicineA Research Agenda for Malaria Eradication: Monitoring, Evaluation, and Surveillance
164 Citations2011The malERA Consultative Group on Monitoring, Evaluation, and Surveillance
The Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) Consultative Group on Monitoring, Evaluation, and Surveillance present a research and development agenda for the tools required to monitor and evaluate progress toward malaria eradication.
Journal of Medical EntomologyModeling the Population Dynamics of <I>Culex quinquefasciatus</I> (Diptera: Culicidae), along an Elevational Gradient in Hawaii
151 Citations2004Jorge Ahumada, Dennis Laoointe +1 more
A novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages, and predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations.
American Journal of EpidemiologyUse of Generalized Linear Mixed Models in the Spatial Analysis of Small-Area Malaria Incidence Rates in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa
149 Citations2001Immo Kleinschmidt
The results of the spatially adjusted, multiple regression analysis showed that malaria incidence was significantly positively associated with higher winter rainfall and a higher average maximum temperature and was significantly negatively associated with increasing distance from water bodies.
Malaria JournalAssembling a global database of malaria parasite prevalence for the Malaria Atlas Project
141 Citations2007Carlos A. Guerra, Simon I Hay +5 more
This database will help refine maps of the global spatial limits of malaria and be the foundation for the development of global malaria endemicity models as part of the Malaria Atlas Project.
International Journal of Health GeographicsSpatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in Malawi using point-referenced prevalence of infection data.
134 Citations2006Lawrence N. Kazembe, Immo Kleinschmidt +2 more
The map provided an initial description of the geographic variation of malaria risk in Malawi, and might help in the choice and design of interventions, which is crucial for reducing the burden of malaria in Malawi.
The LancetRanking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries
133 Citations2010Andrew J. Tatem, David L. Smith +4 more
Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria, and spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility.
Tropical Medicine & International HealthMapping malaria transmission in West and Central Africa
129 Citations2006Armin Gemperli, Nafomon Sogoba +8 more
The produced maps confirm known patterns of malaria transmission, providing a baseline against which interventions such as insecticide‐treated nets programmes and trends in drug resistance can be evaluated and indicate zones where further survey data are needed most urgently.
Tropical Medicine & International HealthAn empirical malaria distribution map for West Africa
128 Citations2001Immo Kleinschmidt, Judy Omumbo +7 more
This paper reports on the mapping of malaria distribution for sub‐Saharan West Africa based on a spatial statistical analysis of malaria parasite prevalence in relation to those potential bio‐physical environmental factors involved in the distribution of malaria transmission intensity which are readily available at any map location.
The LancetForecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study
121 Citations2003Simon I Hay, Eric Were +6 more
Management of malaria in the highlands, including improved planning for the annual resurgent outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide early warning, represents a feasible strategy for increasing epidemic preparedness in Kenya.
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and HygienePHYSIOLOGY OF DESICCATION RESISTANCE IN ANOPHELES GAMBIAE AND ANOPHELES ARABIENSIS
119 Citations2005Emilie M. Gray, Timothy J. Bradley
This study provides the first physiologic measurements of desiccation resistance in adults of these species and offers insights into the physiologic differences associated with differential resistance to Desiccation stress.
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and HygieneField studies of some of the basic factors concerned in the transmission of malaria
117 Citations1953G. Davidson, C. C. Draper
Observations made on the human population and the vector mosquitoes in a coastal area of tropical Africa where malaria is holo-endemic are described and the survival rate of the vector species has been measured by a new technique involving the comparison of the immediate sporozoite rate on capture with that found after keeping wild-caught mosquitoes alive for the duration of the extrinsic cycle.
Geospatial healthBayesian modelling of geostatistical malaria risk data
111 Citations2006Laura Gosoniu, Penelope Vounatsou +2 more
This work analyzes malaria survey data in Mali using a Bayesian non-stationary model and indicates that the stationarity assumption is important because it influences the significance of environmental factors and the corresponding malaria risk maps.
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China
107 Citations2009Cheng Zhang, Adrian Barnett +3 more
PLoS MedicineInternational Funding for Malaria Control in Relation to Populations at Risk of Stable Plasmodium falciparum Transmission
100 Citations2008Robert W. Snow, Carlos A. Guerra +2 more
Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved.
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and HygieneMosquitoes—Their Bionomics and Relation to Disease
95 Citations1955Stanley J. Carpenter
Malaria JournalSpatial prediction of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Somalia
79 Citations2008Abdisalan M. Noor, Archie C. A. Clements +6 more
The maps showed that malaria transmission in Somalia varied from hypo- to meso-endemic, and even after including the selected covariates in the model, there still remained a considerable amount of unexplained spatial variation in parasite prevalence, indicating effects of other factors not captured in the study.
Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisMapping malaria risk in West Africa using a Bayesian nonparametric non-stationary model
74 Citations2009Laura Gosoniu, Penelope Vounatsou +3 more
A non-stationary geostatistical model was developed assuming that the underlying spatial process is a mixture of separate stationary processes within each zone, and non-linearity in the environmental effects was modeled by separate P-splines in each agro-ecological zone.
The LancetEquity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments
61 Citations2010Robert W. Snow, Emelda A. Okiro +3 more
The unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions were identified to create a more equitable investment portfolio that will guarantee sustained financing of control in countries most at risk and least able to support themselves.
PLoS Computational BiologyQuantifying Aggregated Uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence and Populations at Risk via Efficient Space-Time Geostatistical Joint Simulation
57 Citations2010Peter W. Gething, Anand P. Patil +1 more
This study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.
Tropical Medicine & International HealthLow larval vector survival explains unstable malaria in the western Kenya highlands
43 Citations2006Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt, Krijn P. Paaijmans +3 more
Investigating malaria prevalence, malaria vector densities and malaria vector survival in a highland area in western Kenya showed that at this altitude, adult mosquitoes survived inside local houses, but that larval development was severely retarded: only 2 of 500 A. gambiae s.l. larvae developed to the pupal stage, whereas all other larvae died prior to pupation.
BMJMalaria Epidemics at Exceptionally High Altitudes
42 Citations1945P. C. C. Garnhám
There was at first no mental improvement, but four months after the beginning of treatment the mental state also changed for the better, and by mid-January, 1942, she had improved strikingly, and was much less pale and the branny patches had become less evident.
Global Health ActionLocal scale prediction of<i>Plasmodium falciparum</i>malaria transmission in an endemic region using temperature and rainfall
41 Citations2009Yazoume Yé, Moshe Hoshen +3 more
A non-spatial dynamic model driven by meteorological conditions that can capture seasonal malaria transmission dynamics at the village level in a malaria holoendemic area of north-western Burkina Faso has demonstrated potential for local scale seasonal prediction of P. falciparum malaria infection.
PubMedDevelopment and survival of Anopheles gambiae eggs in drying soil: influence of the rate of drying, egg age, and soil type.
35 Citations2004Josephat Shililu, Wesley B. Grueber +4 more
It is suggested that the absolute moisture content of the soil does not alone determine hatching success of anopheline eggs, rather, soil moisture, together with the rate of drying, physiological factors associated with the age of the egg, and the type of soil in which the egg rests likely influence survival.
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and HygieneFurther studies of the basic factors concerned in the transmission of malaria
33 Citations1955G. Davidson
An analysis on numerical lines of the transmission of malaria in the district under study has been made and the implications of the findings in relation to control by insecticides are discussed.
Health and Climate Change
18 Citations2013Pim Martens
Climate ResearchGlobal atmospheric change and human health: an integrated modelling approach
16 Citations1996Pim Martens
Examining the health impact of global environmental problems by dividing them into components may well be a useful approach to analyzing the contribution of the various impacts.