Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security

Abstract

This synthesis for American business and military leaders is peer reviewed and independent. It lays out a road map for getting the U.S. completely off its dependence on oil. The authors' strategy involves the integration of four technological methods to displace oil: (1) utilizing oil twice as efficiently as it is currently used, (2) substituting biofuels for oil, (3) saved natural gas, and (4) using hydrogen as an option. The complete application of today's most efficient technologies (in a doubled-gross domestic product (GDP) 2025 economy) would save half of the U.S. oil consumption that is projected and it would cost half its forecasted cost per barrel. In addition, the non-oil substitutes for the remaining energy consumption would cost less than oil. Zero values are assigned to these comparisons to avoid many of oil's externalized costs, such as pollution, depletion, the costs incurred by rivalry with developing countries, and the costs incurred by military insecurity. The path suggested for the transition after oil will increase consumer wealth and choice, and will be lead by for profit businesses. Novel public policies that are market oriented are proposed to speed up this transition. The authors note that an investment of $180 billion over the next decade will bring $130 billion in annual savings by 2025. It will also revitalize the truck, hydrocarbon, aviation and automotive industries; rebalance trade; create a million jobs in both rural and industrial areas; make the world more peaceful, fair and developed; and make the United States more prosperous, environmentally healthy, equitable and secure. In the discussion of how to get off oil, attention is paid in the paper to modes of transportation that use oil, including airplanes, ships, trains, automobiles, and buses.