Diffusion of environment-saving technological change— a petroleum refining case study

Abstract

This paper attempts a theoretical model (Section I) of a dynamic relationship, brought about by environment-saving technological changes over time, between output and water pollution. The improvement in environmental quality is studied in terms of adoption of relatively environment-saving processes in petroleum refining industry. This is done (Section II) by empirically fitting the Gompertz function or the growth rates of diffusion of the processes by the use of multiple regression equations. Social desirability of substituting the relative environment-saving process is examined in terms of social benefit-cost analysis (Section III). Thereafter, (Section IV) an attempt is made to find social policy variables which could be used in order to accelerate diffusion of environment-saving processes. The analysis concludes that both “carrot” (incentives, say, in the form of accelerated depreciation allowances for purchase of environment-saving process equipment) as well as “stick” (in the form of stricter enforcement of water pollution control laws) are necessary for inducing adoption of the desired technological changes over time.