An evaluation of the forecasting of information processing technology and applications

Although the data are insufficient to provide conclusive evidence, the results suggest that information processing technology and applications are advancing more rapidly than predicted by the forecasts.

Abstract

A number of technological forecasts using the Delphi method and concerned with information processing have been completed since 1964. The forecasting methodology is briefly described and the validity of the forecast events for the years 1968–1972 have been evaluated by comparing forecast event dates with actual dates of occurence as independently stated by experts. Although the data are insufficient to provide conclusive evidence, the results suggest that information processing technology and applications are advancing more rapidly than predicted by the forecasts. Various long-range forecasts are in general agreement. Information processing will be of increasing importance for future forecasts both as a subject and as a tool for processing data.