Insights and Applications

Abstract

Opportunities to see elk and bison draw visitors from around the world to Grand Teton National Park. We compare two different approaches to estimating the effect that changes in elk and bison populations would have on visitation to the park. The first approach is a multiple-regression analysis of how actual visitation has changed with past changes in elk and bison populations. This is compared to survey estimates of visitor trip-making behavior conditional on proposed changes in elk and bison populations. The revealed preference regression visitation estimates and survey intended visitation estimates are generally within 10% of each other. This suggests that intended visitation behavior gathered from surveys is a reasonably accurate predictor of actual behavior for general recreation trips involving wildlife viewing. Such predictive tools can prove useful to managers in determining in advance how their actions impact visitation to a park.