The decision Delphi

Abstract

If Delphi is used as a prognostic tool in the social sciences, it runs the danger of producing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a Delphi application conducted at the Austrian Academy of Sciences about the present situation and future developments of the scientific-technical information and documentation system in Austria, an attempt was made to apply this principle intentionally. A group of actual decision makers in this field were included in a Delphi panel and were therefore confronted with problems and possible future developments in a field which is considerably influenced by their own actions. The Delphi method was therefore used to structure the decision-making process and to help to “create” the future in reality rather than just predicting it. In this way, an attempt was made to transfer an important field of socioeconomic development from a pattern of accidental development through uncoordinated decisions toward a pattern of broad discussion among all involved social groups and thus toward goal-oriented and well-considered management. It seems that this study represents a further variant of the well-known Delphi technique, a variant which has fundamental differences from the classical and the policy Delphi. For a Delphi application of this type the expression “Decision Delphi” is suggested.