The economic cycle and the social suicide rate.

Abstract

To the present, empirical investigations have not confirmed Durkheim's hypothesis relating suicide rates to the economic cycle. That hypothesis asserts an association between suicide rates and the absolute rate of change in the economic cycle. Correlations of suicide rates with economic levels do not, therefore, test it. A valid test must also take account of autocorrelated perturbations that might obscure the true relationship between the variables. The Durbin-Watson d-statistic makes it possible to determine this. When an index which reflects the public definition of the economic situation is used, Durkheim's hypothesis is decisively confirmed, and the data fully satisfy the Durbin-Watson criterion.