On Exchange Rates

Abstract

Part 1 The modern international monetary system: the flexible exchange rate system - experience and alternatives, (with Rudiger Dornbusch) quantifying international capital mobility in the 1980s. Part 2 The determination of exchange rate movements: on the mark - a theory of floating exchange rates based on real interest differentials monetary and portfolio-balance models of the determination of exchange rates why interest rates react to money announcements - an explanation from the foreign exchange market, (with Charles Engel) six possible meanings of overvaluation - the 1981-85 dollar Zen and the art of modern macroeconomics - the search for perfect nothingness. Part 3 Is there an exchange risk premium?: tests of rational expectations in the forward exchange market the diversifiability of exchange risk in search of the exchange risk premium - a six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization recent estimates of time-variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium forward discount bias - is it an exchange risk premium?, (with Kenneth A. Froot). Part 4 Exchange rate expectations: using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectation, (with Kenneth A. Froot) understanding the US dollar in the Eighties - the expectations of Chartists and fundamentalists, (with Kenneth A. Froot) Chartists, fundamentalists, and trading in the foreign exchange market, (with Kenneth A. Froot) foreign exchange intervention - an empirical assessment, (with Kathryn M. Dominguez) the European monetary system - credible in 1988-1991?, (with Steven Phillips).