Elicitation, assessment, and pooling of expert judgments using possibility theory
IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy SystemsPublished 1 January 1995Open access
Sandra Sandri, Didier Dubois, H. W. Kalfsbeek
Citations88
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
This paper forms a model of expert opinion by means of possibility distributions that are thought to better reflect the imprecision pervading expert judgments and are weak substitutes to unreachable subjective probabilities.
Abstract
International audience
Keywords
Computer ScienceDecision SciencesMathematics
Fuzzy Sets and SystemsFuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility
7,964 Citations1978Lotfi A. Zadeh
Fuzzy Sets and SystemsFuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility
7,280 Citations1999Lotfi A. Zadeh
The theory of possibility described in this paper is related to the theory of fuzzy sets by defining the concept of a possibility distribution as a fuzzy restriction which acts as an elastic constraint on the values that may be assigned to a variable.
European Journal of Operational ResearchFuzzy sets, uncertainty, and information
3,193 Citations1989
The fuzzy sets uncertainty and information is universally compatible with any devices to read and is available in the book collection an online access to it is set as public so you can get it instantly.
Experts In Uncertainty
1,083 Citations1991Roger Cooke
Computational IntelligenceRepresentation and combination of uncertainty with belief functions and possibility measures
759 Citations1988Didler Dubois, Henri Prade
The framework of belief functions in terms of expressive power for knowledge representation is examined and it is indicated that combination rules issued from fuzzy set and possibility theory look more flexible than Dempster rule because many variants exist, and their numerical stability seems to be better.
Fuzzy Sets and SystemsThe mean value of a fuzzy number
743 Citations1987Didier Dubois, Henri Prade
Some light is shed on the debate between probability and possibility theory, and the problem of how to carry measure-theoretic notions into the field of possibility theory.
Rational Consensus in Science and Society
447 Citations1981Keith Lehrer, Carl Wagner
Machine intelligence and pattern recognitionConstructing the Pignistic Probability Function in a Context of Uncertainty
432 Citations1990Philippe Smets
On Possibility/Probability Transformations
380 Citations1993Didier Dubois, Henri Prade +1 more
The problem of converting possibility measures into probability measures has received attention in the past, but not by so many scholars, and has roots at least as much in the possibility/probability consistency principle of Zadeh (1978), that he proposed in the paper founding possibility theory.
Management ScienceThe Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
375 Citations1968Robert L. Winkler
Management ScienceCombining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach
356 Citations1977Peter A. Morris
It is proved that the decision maker should process a calibrated expert's opinion by multiplying the expert's probability assessment by his own prior probability assessment and normalizing, and the existence of a composite probability function which measures the joint information contained in the probability assessments generated by a panel of experts.
Fuzzy Sets and SystemsWhen upper probabilities are possibility measures
328 Citations1992Didier Dubois, Henri Prade
Fuzzy Sets and SystemsWeighted fuzzy pattern matching
324 Citations1988Didier Dubois, Henri Prade +1 more
The fuzzy pattern matching procedure is improved by introducing weights assessing the relative importance of atoms in the pattern by using weighted versions of the minimum and maximum operations of fuzzy set theory.
Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)Uncertainty models for knowledge-based systems
254 Citations1985I. R. Goodman, Hung T. Nguyen
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationMarginalization and Linear Opinion Pools
193 Citations1981Kevin McConway
Control Engineering PracticePossibility theory and data fusion in poorly informed environments
192 Citations1994Damien Dubois, H. Prade
A model of expert opinion is formulates by means of possibility distributions that are thought to better reflect the imprecision pervading expert judgements, and are weak substitutes to unreachable subjective probabilities.
Lecture notes in computer scienceApplications of Fuzzy Sets Theory
116 Citations2007Dimitrios Vogiatzis, Nicolas Tsapatsoulis +3 more
Artificial IntelligenceDefault reasoning and possibility theory
107 Citations1988Didier Dubois, Henri Prade
An approach to default reasoning based on possibility theory is discussed, recently outlined by Ron Yager, to address the question of fusing a default value with a piece of incomplete but certain information which may only partially contradict the default value.
Artificial IntelligenceUsing approximate reasoning to represent default knowledge
99 Citations1987Ronald R. Yager
It is shown how the reasoning mechanism of the theory of approximate reasoning can represent default knowledge in the framework of this theory and how this knowledge can be represented in the context of default inference rules.
Pattern Recognition LettersA general approach to parameter evaluation in fuzzy digital pictures
94 Citations1987D. Dubois, Marie‐Christine Jaulent
The main idea is to consider a fuzzy subset of an images as the nested family of its level-cuts, interpret this family as a body of evidence in the sense of Shafer, and any intrinsic parameter can be calculated as a mathematical expectation based on a probability density function.
Reliability Engineering & System SafetyUncertainties in system analysis: Probabilistic versus nonprobabilistic theories
68 Citations1990J.S. Wu, G. Apostolakis +1 more
Reliability Engineering & System SafetyOn the relevance of non-standard theories of uncertainty in modeling and pooling expert opinions
48 Citations1992Didier Dubois, Henri Prade
It is suggested that the framework of possibility and evidence theories offers a more flexible framework for representing and combining subjective uncertain judgments than the one of subjective probability alone although some progress is required to reach the maturity of the Bayesian theory.
Models for the use of Expert Opinions
47 Citations1984Ali Mosleh, G. Apostolakis
The problem of using expert estimates is investigated and two models are proposed based on normal and lognormal likelihood functions, which represent the decision maker’s model of the credibility of the expert estimates.
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationMarginalization and Linear Opinion Pools
44 Citations1981Kevin McConway
Information SciencesAggregating evidence using quantified statements
31 Citations1985Ronald R. Yager
It is first show that linguistically quantified propositions provide a framework in which to aggregate the opinions, and two methodologies for implementing the aggregation in terms of quantified statements are provided.
A possibilistic interpretation of fuzzy sets by the context model
25 Citations2003Jörg Gebhardt, Rudolf Kruse
The authors apply the context model to clarify the numerical foundations of fuzzy set theory and some well-known concepts like the extension principle to provide a formal framework for the representation, interpretation, and analysis of vague and uncertain data.
Reliability Engineering & System SafetyUncertainty in risk assessment: A probabilist's manifesto
22 Citations1988Roger Cooke
A method for forming weighted combinations of probabilistic expert opinion is sketched and one application is indicated and can be evaluated by treating the decision maker as ‘ virtual expert’ and comparing his ‘virtual weight’ with the weights assigned to the experts.
Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research)La combinaison de l'information incertaine et ses aspects algorithmiques
12 Citations1991Sandra Sandri
Data Fusion Problems in Intelligent Data Banks Interface
8 Citations1989Sandra Sandri, A. Besi +4 more
The reported work has been motivated by different kinds of data fusion problems encountered in the design of an advanced interface for exploiting heterogeneous reliability parameter sources.
