Models for the use of Expert Opinions
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TL;DR
The problem of using expert estimates is investigated and two models are proposed based on normal and lognormal likelihood functions, which represent the decision maker’s model of the credibility of the expert estimates.
Abstract
The problem of using expert estimates is investigated. These estimates are treated as evidence that must be evaluated by a decision maker and incorporated into his body of knowledge and beliefs. This is done coherently using Bayes' theorem. Two models are proposed based on normal and lognormal likelihood functions, which represent the decision maker's model of the credibility of the expert estimates. Several commonly used methods, e. g., taking the geometric average of the expert estimates, are investigated in the context of the general methods of this paper.