A novel Bass-type model for product life cycle quantification using aggregate market data
International Journal of Production EconomicsPublished 6 August 2014
Xuezhen Guo
Citations20
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score2.83
SNIP2.67
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Abstract
Product LifeCycle(PLC)isawidelyacceptedconceptthathasbeengivensignificant attentionin operations managementandmarketingliterature.However,itsquantification remainsamajor challenge. ThisstudyaimstodevelopauniqueandoriginalanalyticalmodelforquantifyingPLCsusing aggregatemarketdata.TheBassdiffusionmodelisusedtoforecastconsumers' first purchasesofthe product. Next,theNovelty–LoyaltyBasedConsumerUtility(NLBCU)theory,whichhasaconfirmed neuropsychologicalbasis,isusedtomodelrepeat(orreplacement)purchases.Theuniquecontribution of thisworkisthatitsynthesizestheprevailinginnovationdiffusiontheoryandtheNLBCUtheoryto provideadistinct,dynamicandendogenousperspectiveonconsumerpurchasingbehavioracrossthe entire PLC.Themodel'sadvantagesincludeitssimplemathematicalformulation,itsminimaluseofdata and itsharmonywiththepredominatingideasoftheinnovationdiffusionliterature.Throughsimulation studies andempiricalinvestigations,thedescriptivepoweranddata-fitting performanceofthemodel are demonstrated.
Keywords
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