When did Bayesian inference become "Bayesian"?
Bayesian AnalysisPublished 1 March 2006Open access
Stephen E. Fienberg
Citations396
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score1.77
SNIP2.94
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
Abstract
While Bayes' theorem has a 250-year history, and the method of inverse probability that\nflowed from it dominated statistical thinking into the twentieth century, the adjective\n"Bayesian" was not part of the statistical lexicon until relatively recently. This paper\nprovides an overview of key Bayesian developments, beginning with Bayes' posthumously\npublished 1763 paper and continuing up through approximately 1970, including the period of\ntime when "Bayesian" emerged as the label of choice for those who advocated Bayesian\nmethods.
Keywords
MathematicsArts and HumanitiesBiochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
The Journal of Chemical PhysicsEquation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines
37,074 Citations1953N. Metropolis, Arianna W. Rosenbluth +3 more
American Mathematical Society eBooksTheory of games and economic behavior
16,943 Citations2019Stephan Ramon Garcia, Steven J. Miller
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationThe Monte Carlo Method
6,075 Citations1949N. Metropolis, Stanislaw M. Ulam
Statistical Inference
5,368 Citations1993George Casella, Roger L. Berger
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A Containing Papers of a Mathematical or Physical CharacterOn the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics
4,034 Citations1922Ronald Aylmer Fisher
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationBayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis.
3,873 Citations1975Joseph B. Kadane, George E. P. Box +1 more
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationOptimal Statistical Decisions.
3,492 Citations1972David Siegmund, Morris H. DeGroot
BiometrikaTHE POPULATION FREQUENCIES OF SPECIES AND THE ESTIMATION OF POPULATION PARAMETERS
3,227 Citations1953I. J. Good
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)Bayes Estimates for the Linear Model
2,037 Citations1972D. V. Lindley, A. F. M. Smith
Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines
1,823 Citations1953N. Metropolis, Arianna W. Rosenbluth +3 more
Psychological ReviewBayesian statistical inference for psychological research.
1,746 Citations1963Ward Edwards, Harold R. Lindman +1 more
The likelihood principle emphasized in Bayesian statistics implies that the rules governing when data collection stops are irrelevant to data interpretation, and it is entirely appropriate to collect data until a point has been proven or disproven.
Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
1,707 Citations1933A. Kolmogoroff
Cambridge University Press eBooksEssai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix
1,426 Citations2014Nicolas de Condorcet
Truth and Probability
1,311 Citations2016Frank Plumpton Ramsey
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)Fiducial Distributions and Bayes' Theorem
1,214 Citations1958D. V. Lindley
Medical Entomology and ZoologyThe History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900
1,155 Citations1986Stephen M. Stigler
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A Mathematical and Physical SciencesOutline of a Theory of Statistical Estimation Based on the Classical Theory of Probability
1,085 Citations1937Jerzy Neyman
Medical Entomology and ZoologyInference and disputed authorship : The Federalist
916 Citations1964Frederick Mosteller, David L. Wallace
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationStein's Estimation Rule and its Competitors—An Empirical Bayes Approach
875 Citations1973Bradley Efron, Carl N. Morris
Springer series in statisticsAn Empirical Bayes Approach to Statistics
847 Citations1992Herbert Robbins
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationThe Theory of Statistical Decision
789 Citations1951L. J. Savage
Cambridge University Press eBooksIntroduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint
765 Citations1965D. V. Lindley
The Annals of Mathematical StatisticsThe Empirical Bayes Approach to Statistical Decision Problems
607 Citations1964Herbert Robbins
Statistical ScienceR.A. Fisher and the making of maximum likelihood 1912-1922
606 Citations1997John Aldrich
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationOn the Foundations of Statistical Inference
464 Citations1962Allan Birnbaum
Choice Reviews OnlineStatistics on the table: the history of statistical concepts and methods
429 Citations2000
This collection of essays examines in detail the history of some of the concepts involved in bringing statistical argument to the table, andSome of the pitfalls that have been encountered.
BiometrikaTHE NUMBER OF NEW SPECIES, AND THE INCREASE IN POPULATION COVERAGE, WHEN A SAMPLE IS INCREASED
377 Citations1956I. J. Good, G. H. TOULMIN
The methods described by Shanks (1955) to hasten the convergence of the series by which the estimate is expressed are applied to samples of words from The authors' Mutual Friend, to an entomological sample and to a sample of nouns from Macaulay's essay on Bacon.
The Annals of Mathematical StatisticsA Bayes Approach to a Quality Control Model
367 Citations1952M. A. Girshick, Herman Rubin
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationInference in an Authorship Problem
329 Citations1963Frederick Mosteller, David L. Wallace
TechnometricsA History of Mathematical Statistics from 1750 to 1930
267 Citations1999Eric R. Ziegel, A. Hald
Asymptotically Subminimax Solutions of Compound Statistical Decision Problems
236 Citations1985Herbert Robbins
BiometrikaA further look at robustness via Bayes's theorem
232 Citations1962George E. P. Box, George C. Tiao
BiometrikaStudies in the History of Probability and Statistics: IX. Thomas Bayes's Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances
203 Citations1958G. A. Barnard, Thomas Bayes
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationBayesians, Frequentists, and Scientists
198 Citations2005Bradley Efron
BiometrikaStudies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXVII A. M. Turing's statistical work in World War II
183 Citations1979I. J. Good
An account is given of A. M. Turing's unpublished contributions to statistics during 1941 or 1940.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)Sequential Tests in Industrial Statistics
178 Citations1946G. A. Barnard
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooksThe Cowles Commission's Contributions to Econometrics at Chicago, 1939-1955
169 Citations1996Carl F. Christ
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)Posterior Distributions for Multivariate Normal Parameters
147 Citations1963Seymour Geisser, Jerome Cornfield
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationSignificance Tests in Parallel and in Series
120 Citations1958I. J. Good
BiometrikaBayes's theorem and the use of prior knowledge in regression analysis
113 Citations1964George C. Tiao, Arnold Zellner
Choice Reviews OnlineKarl Pearson: the scientific life in a statistical age
112 Citations2004Theodore M. Porter, I. Bernard Cohen +2 more
This book is intended to be a guide to a post-modern view of the world through the eyes of a 19th-Century historian.
American Mathematical MonthlyMathematics and the Imagination.
108 Citations1940Thomas Ryan, Edward Kasner +2 more
The Annals of Mathematical StatisticsAn Essentially Complete Class of Admissible Decision Functions
104 Citations1947Abraham Wald
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationThe Statistical Research Group, 1942–1945
93 Citations1980W. Allen Wallis
Cambridge University Press eBooksInterpreting Probability
92 Citations2002David Howie
This chapter discusses probability during the 1930s in the context of the Fisher-Jeffreys exchange, which saw a sharp decline in the value of the pound against the dollar.
The Bayesian Influence, or How to Sweep Subjectivism under the Carpet
85 Citations1976I. J. Good
The London Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of ScienceLXXV. <i>On some aspects of the theory of probability</i>
73 Citations1919Dorothy Wrinch, Harold Jeffreys
The Role of Subjective Probability and Utility in Decision-Making
72 Citations1969Patrick Suppes
The American StatisticianFirst (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Mathematical Statistics
63 Citations1995H. A. David
A list of over 300 terms commonly used in mathematical statistics is presented with their apparent first occurrence in print, with some of the more interesting problems encountered in preparing the list.
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationA History of Inverse Probability: From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson.
56 Citations1992Peter Guttorp, Andrew I. Dale
BiometrikaStudies in the history of probability and statistics XLIV. A forerunner of the t-distribution
56 Citations1996J. Pfanzagl
Statistical ScienceA Brief History of Statistics in Three and One-Half Chapters: A Review Essay
56 Citations1992Stephen E. Fienberg
Statistical ScienceR. A. Fisher's Fiducial Argument and Bayes' Theorem
54 Citations1992Teddy Seidenfeld
Historia MathematicaHow probabilities came to be objective and subjective
54 Citations1994Lorraine Daston
International Statistical ReviewReconsidering the Fundamental Contributions of Fisher and Neyman on Experimentation and Sampling
54 Citations1996Stephen E. Fienberg, Judith M. Tanur
The Annals of StatisticsJohn W. Tukey: his life and professional contributions
49 Citations2002David R. Brillinger
Journal of the Operational Research SocietyFoundations of Statistical Inference
39 Citations1973G. Gregory
Statistical ScienceWhat did Fisher mean by "inverse probability" in 1912--1922?
38 Citations1997A. W. F. Edwards
SignificanceThat Wretched Prior
32 Citations2004D. V. Lindley
The need to improve the methods of assessing probabilities whenever the authors face uncertainty is discussed in this article by Dennis Lindley.
The American StatisticianFirst (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Probability and Statistics—A Second List, with Corrections
26 Citations1998H. A. David
Statistics in the United Kingdom, 1939–45
25 Citations1985G. A. Barnard, R. L. Plackett
International Statistical ReviewHow Likelihood and Identification went Bayesian
23 Citations2002John Aldrich
Statistical Developments in World War II: An International Perspective
22 Citations1985Stephen E. Fienberg
Statistical ScienceA conversation with I. J. Good
19 Citations1996David Banks
Jack Good has made fundamental contributions to mathematics, physics, computer science, philosophy and especially statistics, chiefly famous as a pioneer of Bayesianism, especially hierarchical, and of the Bayes/non-Bayes compromise.
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical PsychologyFechner as a statistician
16 Citations2004Oscar Sheynin
As the originator of psychophysics, Fechner opened up a new field for quantification and subsequent workers rejected some of his findings, while at the same time acknowledging their debt to him.
BiometrikaStudies in the history of probability and statistics XLVIII The Bayesian contributions of Ernest Lhoste
16 Citations2003Lyle D. Broemeling
BiometrikaOn the Influence of Past Experience on Future Expectation.
14 Citations1907W. P. E., Karl Pearson
Choice Reviews OnlineMost honourable remembrance: the life and work of Thomas Bayes
14 Citations2004Andrew I Dale
Historia MathematicaOn Some Recently Discovered Manuscripts of Thomas Bayes
12 Citations2002David R. Bellhouse
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)Professor Hogben's `Crisis'-A Survey of the Foundations of Statistics
10 Citations1958D. V. Lindley
Archive for History of Exact SciencesEarly Influences on Probability and Statistics in the Russian Empire
9 Citations1998E. Seneta
The American StatisticianReading Suggestions for the Foundations of Statistics
8 Citations1970Leonard J. Savage
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationBayes Estimates for Subclasses in Stratified Sampling
7 Citations1971Alastair Scott, Timothy M. Smith
Mathématiques et sciences humainesHow Ronald Fisher became a mathematical statistician
6 Citations2006Stephen M. Stigler
Springer series in statisticsIntroduction to Robbins (1955) An Empirical Bayes Approach to Statistics
3 Citations1992I. J. Good
BAYES' THEOREM AND THE USE OF PRIOR KNOWLEDGE IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS
2 Citations1963George C. Tiao, Arnold Zellner
…
