The triple helix: an evolutionary model of innovations

Abstract

The "lock-in" model by Arthur [Arthur, W.B., 1988. Competing technologies. In: Dosi, G., Freeman, C., Nelson, R., Silverberg, G., Soete, L. (Eds.), Technical Change and Economic Theory. Pinter, London, pp. 590–607.] can be extended to the case of two and even three sources of random variation. Thus, one can model a triple helix of university–industry–government relations. In the case of two sources the stabilization of a technological trajectory is enhanced, while in the case of three a complex regime can be generated. Conditions for lock-in, lock-out, return to equilibrium, substitution, etc., are specified in relation to the assumed complexity of the dynamics under study and with reference to the stage of development, that is, before or after lock-in. Some normative implications of the triple helix model of innovations can be specified.