MICROSIMULATION AND ACTIVITY-BASED FORECASTING
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
An overview of the state of the art of microsimulation modeling applied to activity-based travel forecasting and a discussion of research development issues associated with the continuing development of operational microsimulating models are provided.
Abstract
This paper provides an overview of the state of the art of microsimulation modeling applied to activity-based travel forecasting. The paper defines what is meant by microsimulation and discusses why microsimulation might be a preferred approach to activity-based forecasting in many applications. The issue of synthesizing and updating characteristics of the population being simulated is addressed in some detail. Examples of various types of microsimulation models which have been developed to date are provided, including microsimulation models of auto ownership, residential mobility, route choice and network performance, as well as activity-based travel forecasting models per se. The paper concludes with a discussion of research development issues associated with the continuing development of operational microsimulation models. These include: further evaluation of population synthesizing and updating methods; determination of appropriate levels of model disaggregation; establishing appropriate linkages between model components; examination of the statistical properties of microsimulation models; and demonstration of the computational feasibility of these very computer-intensive modeling systems.