Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets

Abstract

We develop a new methodology to estimate herd behavior in financial markets. We build a model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event uncertainty. We estimate the model using data on a NYSE stock (Ashland Inc.) during 1995. Herding occurs often and is particularly pervasive on some days. On average, the proportion of herd buyers is 2 percent; that of herd sellers is 4 percent. Herding also causes important informational inefficiencies in the market, amounting, on average, to 4 percent of the asset's expected value. (JEL C58, D82, D83, G12, G14)