Technological growth curves

Abstract

In order to determine procedures for appropriate model selection of technological growth curves, numerous time series that were representative of growth behavior were collected and categorized according to data characteristics. Nine different growth curve models were each fitted onto the various data sets in an attempt to determine which growth curve models achieved the best forecasts for differing types of growth data. The analysis of the results gives rise to a new approach for selecting appropriate growth curve models for a given set of data, prior to fitting the models, based on the characteristics of the data sets.