The language of uncertainty

By asking subjects to compare the appropriateness of selected verbal expressions under different circumstances, it is possible to identify important semantic components of such expressions, in addition to those elicited by probability scaling techniques.

Abstract

The article discusses subjective meaning components of the terms commonly used to express different varieties and degrees of probability and uncertainty. Some terms (like 'risky' and 'promising' prospects) have ambiguous referents, being in some cases interpreted to refer to possible gains and losses, in other cases to levels of uncertainty and certainty. Other terms (like 'highly probable', 'doubtful' 'good chances' etc.) are shown to have other communicative functions besides their purely probabilistic ones, some of the most important being to indicate the source of uncertainty (internal vs. external), non-commitment and vagueness, and emphasis on p or 1-p (probability vs. uncertainty). By asking subjects to compare the appropriateness of selected verbal expressions under different circumstances, e.g. with equipossible outcomes, or after the outcome is known, it is possible to identify important semantic components of such expressions, in addition to those elicited by probability scaling techniques.