Time Series Forecasting Techniques: Short‐term Planning inTourism

Abstract

Planning, both “operational” and “strategic”, relies on accurate forecasting. Planning in tourism is no less dependent on accurate forecasts. However, tourism demand forecasting has been dominated by the application of regression/econometric techniques. Past studies on the forecasting accuracy of econometric/regression models suggest that forecasts generated by these models are not necessarily superior to forecasts generated by simple time series techniques. Seven time series forecasting techniques were used to generate forecasts of international tourist arrivals from Thailand to Hong Kong. The results confirm that simple techniques may be just as accurate and often more time‐and cost‐effective than more complex ones. Practitioners in the tourism industry may confidently use any of the forecasting techniques demonstrated here for their short‐term planning activities.