Spatial Modeling of Regional Variables

Abstract

Abstract In this article, accumulated sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) data, from 1974–1978 and 1979–1984 for the counties of North Carolina, are analyzed. After a spatial exploratory data analysis, Markov random-field models are fit to the data. The (spatial) trend is meant to capture the large-scale variation in the data, and the variance and spatial dependence are meant to capture the small-scale variation. The trend could be a function of other explanatory variables or could simply be modeled as a function of spatial location. Both models are fit and compared. The results give an excellent illustration of a phenomenon already well-known in time series, that autocorrelation in data can be due to an undiscovered explanatory variable. Indeed, for 1974–1978 we confirm a dependence of SIDS rate on proportion of nonwhite babies born, along with insignificant spatial correlation. Without this regressor variable, however, the spatial correlation is significant. In 1979–1984, perhaps due to reporting bias o...