Predicting satisfaction among first time visitors to a destination by using the expectancy disconfirmation theory

Abstract

One hundred and eighty-one, first-time travelers from the U.S.A. to Spain were interviewed before and after their trip for the purpose of determining their perceptions of Spain as a tourist destination, and measuring their satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the trip experience. The purpose of the study was to test Oliver's expectancy disconfirmation theory that explains the process of consumer satisfaction/dissatisfaction (CS/ D). It was hypothesized that CS/D with a destination can be explained by the difference between tourists' perceived outcome of a trip and their specific expectations before it took place (disconfirmation). The study also tested this concept among various tourist market segments. The results showed that disconfirmations are relatively good predictors of overall satisfaction with a destination. The predictive ability of the disconfirmation model was found to be especially effective when the tourists' population was sub-divided into market segments based on reasons for travel.