Tracking of cardiovascular disease risk factor variables in school-age children

A linear discriminant model was used to distinguish characteristics of children who persisted at high rankings and those who did not and the model was effective for total and beta-lipoprotein cholesterol, but only moderately so for systolic blood pressure.

Abstract

Persistence in ranks (tracking) for cardiovascular disease risk factor variables was examined in 2236 children who were screened three times over a 5-yr period. As expected, the greatest persistence was noted for height (r = 0.47-0.99) and weight (r = 0.70-0.96). Correlation coefficients for systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure ranged from 0.38 to 0.66 and 0.22 to 0.49 respectively. Among lipids, the correlations were highest for serum beta-lipoprotein cholesterol ranging from 0.62 to 0.78. For those children who were at or above the 90th percentile on a risk factor variable during the first examination, a tendency to retain their ranks in the second and third examinations was noted. For systolic blood pressure, 35% of those initially high remained high in the second examination and 30% in the third examination. Correspondingly, for those initially high for beta-lipoprotein cholesterol, 47 and 41% remained high. A linear discriminant model was used to distinguish characteristics of children who persisted at high rankings and those who did not. The model was effective for total and beta-lipoprotein cholesterol, but only moderately so for systolic blood pressure.