Theory development should begin (but not end) with good empirical fits: A comment on Roberts and Pashler (2000).
Psychological ReviewPublished 1 July 2002
Joseph Lee Rodgers, David Rowe
Citations47
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score3.06
SNIP2.88
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
The authors argue that good fits are part and parcel of theory development, that they must be the starting point (though far from the ending point) in theoretical development.
Abstract
S. Roberts and H. Pashler (2000) argued against using goodness of fit as evidence to support theories. The authors agree with their suggestions for how to go beyond good fits but disagree with their starting point. In this comment, the authors argue that good fits are part and parcel of theory development, that they are part and parcel of the processes suggested by S. Roberts and H. Pashler, and that they must be the starting point (though far from the ending point) in theoretical development. The authors discuss historical examples of scientific theory development, recent examples of psychological theory development, and development of a particular theory (social contagion theory; J. L. Rodgers & D. C. Rowe, 1993) that S. Roberts and H. Pashler criticized.
Keywords
PsychologyDecision Sciences
Journal of Risk and UncertaintyAdvances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
15,596 Citations1992Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
Psychological MethodsFit indices in covariance structure modeling: Sensitivity to underparameterized model misspecification.
11,435 Citations1998Li‐tze Hu, Peter M. Bentler
American PsychologistStatistical methods in psychology journals: Guidelines and explanations.
2,773 Citations1999Leland Wilkinson, Task Force on Statistical Inference
Annual Review of PsychologyApplications of Structural Equation Modeling in Psychological Research
2,622 Citations2000Robert C. MacCallum, James T. Austin
This chapter presents a review of applications of structural equation modeling (SEM) published in psychological research journals in recent years and focuses first on the variety of research designs and substantive issues to which SEM can be applied productively.
ScienceToward a Universal Law of Generalization for Psychological Science
2,475 Citations1987Roger N. Shepard
A psychological space is established for any set of stimuli by determining metric distances between the stimuli such that the probability that a response learned to any stimulus will generalize to any other is an invariant monotonic function of the distance between them.
Psychological BulletinThe problem of equivalent models in applications of covariance structure analysis.
883 Citations1993Robert C. MacCallum, Duane T. Wegener +2 more
A study of 53 published applications showed that equivalent models exist routinely, often in large numbers and may often offer substantively meaningful alternative explanations of data.
Psychological ReviewHow persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing.
834 Citations2000Seth Roberts, Harold Pashler
A better way to test a theory with free parameters is to determine how the theory constrains possible outcomes, assess how firmly actual outcomes agree with those constraints, and determine if plausible alternative outcomes would have been inconsistent with the theory, allowing for the variability of the data.
Psychological BulletinThe fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test.
738 Citations1960William W. Rozeboom
To the experimental scientist, statistical inference is a research instrument, a processing device by which unwieldy masses of raw data may be refined into a product more suitable for assimilation into the corpus of science, and in this lies both strength and weakness.
Journal of Mathematical PsychologyThe Importance of Complexity in Model Selection
519 Citations2000In Jae Myung
It is shown that model selection based solely on the fit to observed data will result in the choice of an unnecessarily complex model that overfits the data, and thus generalizes poorly.
American Sociological ReviewRace Differences in the Timing of Adolescent Intercourse
225 Citations1987Frank F. Furstenberg, S. Philip Morgan +2 more
Choice Reviews OnlineGregor Mendel: the first geneticist
133 Citations1997
The genesis of a theory Mendelian mythmaking Theory in Pisum experiments Theory in experiments with other plant genera Hybrids and the idea of evolution Honesty in presenting experimental data.
Psychological ReviewSocial contagion and adolescent sexual behavior: A developmental EMOSA model.
99 Citations1993Joseph Lee Rodgers, David Rowe
EMOSA models, which describe the spread of adolescent transition behaviors through an interacting adolescent network, are represented in sets of dynamically interacting recursive equations, which are fit to empirical prevalence data to estimate parameters.
Journal of Mathematical PsychologyGUEST EDITORS' INTRODUCTION
82 Citations2000In Jae Myung, Marc R. Forster +1 more
The Journal of Sex ResearchBlack sexuality: A test of two theories
63 Citations1988Martin S. Weinberg, Colin J. Williams
Psychological ReviewTheory development should begin (but not end) with good empirical fits: A comment on Roberts and Pashler (2000).
47 Citations2002Joseph Lee Rodgers, David Rowe
The authors argue that good fits are part and parcel of theory development, that they must be the starting point (though far from the ending point) in theoretical development.
Social BiologyA social contagion model of adolescent sexual behavior: Explaining race differences
36 Citations1994David Rowe, Joseph Lee Rodgers
It is concluded that pubertal maturation may be more important in accounting for the racial difference in the onset of sexual intercourse than previously thought.
Developmental PsychologySocial contagion, adolescent sexual behavior, and pregnancy: A nonlinear dynamic EMOSA model.
26 Citations1998Joseph Lee Rodgers, David Rowe +1 more