Extrapolating human probability judgment
Theory and DecisionPublished 1 March 1994Open access
Daniel N. Osherson, Edward E. Smith, Tracy S. Myers, Eldar Shafir, Michael Stob
Citations21
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score0.48
SNIP0.88
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TL;DR
A model of human probability judgment is advanced and applied to the design of an extrapolation algorithm that examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements.
Abstract
We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.
Keywords
PsychologyComputer ScienceMathematics
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