Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting

Study results show that individuals' daily travel patterns can be synthesized in a practical manner by micro-simulation, and results of validation analyses suggest that properly representing rigidities in daily schedules is important in simulating dailyTravel patterns.

Abstract

The development and initial validation results of a micro-simulator for the generation of daily activity-travel patterns are presented in this paper. The simulator assumes a sequential history and time-of-day dependent structure. Its components are developed based on a decomposition of a daily activity-travel pattern into components to which certain aspects of observed activity-travel behavior correspond, thus establishing a link between mathematical models and observational data. Each of the model components is relatively simple and is estimated using commonly adopted estimation methods and existing data sets. A computer code has been developed and daily travel patterns have been generated by Monte Carlo simulation. Study results show that individuals' daily travel patterns can be synthesized in a practical manner by micro-simulation. Results of validation analyses suggest that properly representing rigidities in daily schedules is important in simulating daily travel patterns. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000