Judgemental Forecasting Support Systems in Tourism

An innovative approach is presented, which uses the opportunities offered by decision support systems to tackle the main issues associated with judgemental forecasting and a forecasting system that supports collaborative short-term forecasting tasks among tourism managers is offered as a case example.

Abstract

In an increasingly competitive industry, tourism managers are faced with the necessity of estimating future values of demand in the short term despite the limitations of scarcity, volatility and uncertainty. A convenient and flexible approach such as judgemental forecasting holds promise in addressing the major issues in the field of tourism demand forecasting. This paper presents an innovative approach, which uses the opportunities offered by decision support systems to tackle the main issues associated with judgemental forecasting. A forecasting system that supports collaborative short-term forecasting tasks among tourism managers is offered as a case example.